The NetCDF files contain ocean temperature, salinity, eastward and northward currents, and elevation. Details of the system and procedures are provided in McLay et al. Shown curves are (i) MAE of NCEP (ND: red stars) and FNMOC (FD: blue stars) deterministic models and (ii) CRPS of NCEP (NWE: solid red), FNMOC (FWE: solid blue), and NFCENS (NFC: solid green) ensemble systems. The model systems also ingest ice concentrations that act as obstacles for wave generation and propagation whenever concentrations reach arbitrarily chosen levels. 2011, manuscript submitted to Tellus) was introduced in early 2010. In addition to the winds associated with Irwin, 20–25-kt west-southwest winds prevailed over much of the region near the Mexican coast. (2008). I: Basic concept, Comparing TIGGE multimodel forecasts with reforecast-calibrated ECMWF ensemble forecasts, Measurements of wind-wave growth and swell decay during the Joint North Sea Wave Project (JONSWAP), Computations and parameterizations of the nonlinear energy transfer in a gravity-wave spectrum, Part I: A new method for efficient computations of the exact nonlinear transfer integral, Decomposition of the continuous ranked probability score for ensemble prediction systems, Potential benefits of ensemble forecasting for ship routing, Model error representation in an operational ensemble Kalman filter, Multimodel ensemble forecasts for weather and seasonal climate, The ULTIMATE conservative difference scheme applied to unsteady one-dimensional advection, A local formulation of the ensemble transform (ET) analysis perturbation scheme, The impact of horizontal resolution and ensemble size on probabilistic forecasts of precipitation by the ECMWF ensemble prediction system, TIGGE: Medium-range multi model weather forecast ensembles in flood forecasting (a case study), TIGGE: Preliminary results on comparing and combining ensembles, Probabilistic forecasting of the wave energy flux, Skill and relative economic value of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system, Measures of skill and value of ensemble prediction systems, their interrelationship and the effect of ensemble size, A satellite-derived climatology of global ocean winds, Potential benefits of using probabilistic forecasts for waves and marine winds based on the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System, User manual and system documentation of WAVEWATCH III version 3.14, Source terms in a third-generation wind-wave model, The NOPP operational wave model improvement project. (2010). The image illustrates graphics made available publicly via NCEP's product web portals. Figure 2 provides an example of graphical output from the NFCENS product. Preliminary guidance, revisions, and suggestions made by Yuejian Zhu (NOAA/NCEP), Zoltan Toth (NOAA/OAR/ESRL/GSD), and Christopher Landsea (NHC) are also gratefully acknowledged. Below, a performance assessment is presented with the intention of providing a bird's-eye view of the benefits brought by the combined wave ensemble Hs product. In contrast, point B is located in the tropical eastern North Pacific, within the downstream plume of a gap wind region, where Caribbean trade winds frequently spill across Central America and then exit and accelerate downstream of the waters of the Gulf of Papagayo. Early studies using global-scale models have shown that such systems, known by names as numerous as their sources of data (e.g., superensembles, multimodel ensembles, and multicenter ensembles), are a successful tool for extending the reliability of atmospheric models and the skill of their forecast products (e.g., Krishnamurti et al. This data, along with other ocean products are available on the Ocean Prediction Center page. Altimeter measurements of Hs provide a vantage point from which a comparative performance assessment of ensemble forecasts from NCEP-WES, FNMOC-WES, and NFCENS can be made on a global scale. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00032.1, ftp://ftpprd.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/wave/prod/, www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP112011_Irwin.pdf, www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP102011_Jova.pdf, Critical Analyses of Data Differences between FNMOC and AFGWC Spawned SSM/I Datasets, Vertical Wind Shear Influences on Tropical Cyclone Formation and Intensification during TCM-92 and TCM-93, 50th Anniversary of Operational Numerical Weather Prediction, A Pressure-Based Analysis of the Historical Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Intensity Record, Wildfire Management and Forecasting Fire Potential: The Roles of Climate Information and Social Networks in the Southwest United States, Reference-Quality Emission and Backscatter Modeling for the Ocean, Advancing Precipitation Estimation, Prediction, and Impact Studies.
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